Social structure and conflict: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa
Working paper • Vol/Iss. . • Harvard Scholar • • Published In • Pages: i-64 •
By Moscona, Jacob, Nunn, Nathan, Robinson, James A.
Hypothesis
Onset and offset of conflict will be affected by segmentary lineage systems
Note
Segmentary lineage was found to be associated with a greater probability of conflicts starting, and with wars being less likely to end and thus lasting longer after they start (52). "The effect of segmentary lineage on offset appears to be greater than for onset (52)." When segmentary lineage was tested with conflict scale using a negative binomial estimate, the segmentary lineage indicator is positive and significant in all columns, but "the magnitude of the coefficient increases monotonically as the number of fatalities rise"(52).
| Test Name | Support | Significance | Coefficient | Tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discrete time hazard model | Supported | multiple p-values | UNKNOWN | UNKNOWN |
| Variable Name | Variable Type | OCM Term(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Segmentary Lineage | Dependent | Lineages |
| All conflicts | Independent | External Relations, Ingroup Antagonisms, Instigation Of War |
| Civil conflicts | Independent | Military Organization, Revolution |
| Non-civil conflicts | Independent | External Relations, Ingroup Antagonisms, Instigation Of War |
| Country Fixed Effects | Control | NONE |
| Historical Controls | Control | Community Structure, External Relations, Settlement Patterns, Territorial Organization |
| Geographic Controls | Control | Location, Topography And Geology |
| Intra-Group Conflicts | Independent | Ingroup Antagonisms, Social Control, Informal In-group Justice |
| Conflict Onset | Independent | NONE |
| Conflict Offset | Independent | NONE |
| Third degree of polynomial duration | Control | NONE |