Periodic catastrophes over human evolutionary history are necessary to explain the forager population paradox

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America • Vol/Iss. 116(26) • PNAS • • Published In • Pages: 12758-12766 •
By Gurven, Michael D., Davison, Raziel J.

Hypothesis

Through altering the rate of catastrophes a population experiences, it would be possible to adjust the current rapid growth of contemporary human forager groups to achieve ZPG (zero population growth) p. 12763.

Note

Infrequent catastrophes are sufficient to drive long-term ZPG only in the slowest growing populations at highest intensity. For fast-growing populations, catastrophes would have to be of such high frequency and intensity that they would change underlying mean vital rates. Potential catastrophes include warfare, food shortages, and infectious disease. p. 12763

Test

Test NameSupportSignificanceCoefficientTail
UNKNOWNPartially supportedUNKNOWNUNKNOWNUNKNOWN

Variables

Variable NameVariable Type OCM Term(s)
Population GrowthDependentPopulation
CatastrophesIndependentDisasters

Related Hypotheses

Main AuthorHypothesis
Gurven, Michael D.Through altering mean vital rates (both fertility and mortality) it would be possible to adjust the current rapid growth of contemporary human forager groups to achieve ZPG (zero population growth) p. 12761.
Gurven, Michael D.Through altering a population’s vital rate stochasticity it would be possible to adjust the current rapid growth of contemporary human forager groups to achieve ZPG (zero population growth) p. 12763.
Gurven, Michael D.Through altering a population’s vital rate covariance it would be possible to adjust the current rapid growth of contemporary human forager groups to achieve ZPG (zero population growth) p. 12763.
Gurven, Michael D.Combining more than one of the four demographic scenarios (altered mean vital rates (i.e., fertility and mortality), vital rate stochasticity, vital rate covariance, and periodic catastrophes) increases the likelihood of returning the rate of population growth to ZPG p. 12763.
Freeman, Jacob"Holding population density constant, forager groups should increase the time they spend within a habitat as the rate of resource growth in a habitat declines (434)"