History and Ethnic Conflict: Does Precolonial Centralization Matter?

International Studies Quarterly • Vol/Iss. 0 • Oxford University Press • • Published In • Pages: 1-15 •
By Ray, Subhasish

Hypothesis

Centralized precolonial state formation will be positively associated with contemporary ethnic conflict.

Note

This is predicted to be non-causal, but rather mediated by British colonial state building strategies.

Test

Test NameSupportSignificanceCoefficientTail
Causal Mediation AnalysisSupportedUNKNOWNUNKNOWNUNKNOWN

Variables

Variable NameVariable Type OCM Term(s)
Group SizeControlComposition Of Population, Population
Postcolonial Intrastate OnsetDependentIngroup Antagonisms, External Relations, Instigation Of War
Initial Postcolonial InclusionDependentComposition Of Population, Ethnic Stratification, Local Officials, Government Institutions
Police Ethnic ShareDependentComposition Of Population, Ethnic Stratification, Local Officials, Police
Jurisdictional HeirarchyIndependentTerritorial Organization
Regional BaseControlGeography, Location
DensityControlPopulation, Composition Of Population
Capital Ethnic ShareControlComposition Of Population, Ethnic Stratification
Settlement PatternsControlSettlement Patterns
Colonial Extrastate OnsetControlIngroup Antagonisms, War
Total PopulationControlPopulation
Per Capita IncomeControlIncome And Demand